Yen, Dollars, and the Subprime Crisis

In recent weeks the Japanese stock market has suffered declines even greater than the American and European markets. At first glance, this might seem somewhat puzzling. Japan’s banking system has had little exposure to the sub-prime mortgage mess, and Japan’s consumers have an estimated $15 trillion in savings. Japan would appear to have relatively few worries compared to America and its imploding banking system and skyrocketing unemployment. To a degree the fall of the Japanese stock market can be attributed to concern over the weak state of the American and Euro Zone economies, together which account for over a third of Japan’s export markets. However, if one takes a closer look what is really scaring Japanese traders is something that America traders usually welcome with joy: currency appreciation. Since the beginning of the financial crisis in October, the Yen has increased about 30% in valuation vis-a-vis the dollar, and even more against the Euro. Why is this giving Japan such a scare? The origins of the Yen’s current appreciation are closely tied to the origin of the sub-prime crisis and America and Europe’s current financial woes. A stronger Yen is likely to damage Japan’s economy in the short run, however, it is probable that it also signals a shift to more consumer purchasing power in Japan, which may be good news for the rest of the world.

As I discussed in my first post, Japan’s banking system is propped up by an enormous sum of money saved by Japanese households. In fact, Japanese households save so much money there has been a chronic and massive excess of money in Japan. As can be seen here, even after loans there is colossal excess of 145 trillion Yen held by Japanese banks. In order to put this money to productive use banks invested huge sums abroad; the majority being used to by US dollars and debt. In this way, Japan’s over saving problem helped to feed America’s over consumption problem. The Japanese government allowed this to go on because it pushed the Yen’s value down versus the Dollar and EURO. The cheaper the Yen became, the more competitive Japanese exports became, allowing Japan to increase trade surpluses even as its imports skyrocketed . Both of these contributed to the deteration of the U.S. economy of the past several years.
American politicians constantly tout the need for a stronger dollar, demonstrated by the "strong-dollar policy" of the past twenty years. As recently as February of this year, even President Bush, who has presided over the largest deficits in American, history claimed, "We believe in a strong dollar policy...and in the ability of the economy to grow economically."However, they are mistaken in their assumption that a stronger dollar means a stronger economy. A stronger dollar has made U.S. manufacturing exports increasingly uncompetitive abroad, while increasing the competiveness of foreign imports. A prime example is the rapid detorioration of the American car industry, not only abroad, but within the U.S. as well. At the same time Japanese cars have virtually conquered the U.S. and European markets. That is not only because Japanese cars tend to be more fuel efficient and suffer fewer break downs, but because they been very cheap compared to American made cars. This same logic can be applied to a variety of Japanese products that are edging out their European and American competitors such as computers, driers, washers, televisions, cell phones etc. Japanese corporations reinvested their profits, leaving cash to spare in the banking system. The spare cash found its way back to the U.S. feeding American’s borrowing binge, even as U.S. manufactures sold less overseas. That brings us to the financial crisis and the current strengthening of the Yen.

The rapid strengthening of the Yen versus other currencies is evidence of Japanese investments returning from abroad, and is likely to lead to a decline in the enormous Japanese trade surplus. As the financial crisis has made American and European assets increasingly risky looking to investors, investment in the Yen has increased. Additionally, Japan’s banks are recalling their investments from abroad. The rise in the value of the Yen coupled with the global downturn will lead to a sharp contraction in the size of Japan’s trade surplus. However, a stronger Yen, while hurting exports, will further increase the buying power of the Japanese consumer. Although a contraction in exports will hurt Japanese businesses, the Japanese consumer should be able to enjoy unprecedented buying power. This might provide a bit of a cushion for American and European businesses that export to Japan. If the Japanese consumer uses that buying power to purchase more imports both the European and American manufacturing. The Japanese consumer has reputation for being frugal, and the news of a global down turn will only enforce these habits. Time will tell if the strengthening of the Yen will be a win- lose situation, or ultimately reenforce an already deep global downturn.